Sunday, July 09, 2006

Hand of the Day

Ok here is a hand that raised a few eyebrows at my table and even got one player to call me an idiot. This hand takes place in the bodog 10k guarantee the night after I won the tourney. At this point we are down to about 35 players left and are already in the money.

Bodog Game #310280043: Tournament $10,000 Guaranteed, Hold'em No Limit -
Blinds (400/800) - 2006/07/07 - 01:12:50 (ET)
Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: sixsoda (10260 in chips)
Seat 2: GNet (3045 in chips)
Seat 3: bens (43000 in chips)
Seat 4: Simply_Mike (14072.50 in chips)
Seat 5: willie (12370 in chips)
Seat 7: Paulie Balls (6010 in chips)
Seat 8: NaplesDragon (18070 in chips)
Seat 9: mrswolenrod2 (8383.32 in chips)
sixsoda: posts the ante 100
GNet: posts the ante 100
bens: posts the ante 100
Simply_Mike: posts the ante 100
willie: posts the ante 100
Paulie Balls: posts the ante 100
NaplesDragon: posts the ante 100
mrswolenrod2: posts the ante 100
GNet: posts small blind 400
bens: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to GNet [Qd 4d]
Simply_Mike: folds
willie: folds
Paulie Balls: folds
NaplesDragon: folds
mrswolenrod2: folds
sixsoda: raises to 10160 and is all-in
GNet: calls 2545 and is all-in
bens: folds
*** FLOP ***
[Kc 4s 4c]
*** TURN ***
[Kc 4s 4c] [9h]
*** RIVER ***
[Kc 4s 4c 9h] [7s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
GNet: shows [Qd 4d] (three of a kind, Fours)
sixsoda: shows [Ad Js] (a pair, Fours)
GNet collected 7490 from main pot

Analysis: I have gotten myself into pretty bad shape here, I am down to 2545 in chips with blinds at 400/800 and a 100 ante. At this rate I have less than 2 orbits before I will be blinded out and I need to make a move asap. This hand is actually a case where I find myself in a pretty good scenario. The table folds around to the button who raises all in, I take a second to figure out my pot odds in this situation, then consider the range of cards my opponent has and decide that this is a very easy call. In this hand I have to call 2545 chips in order to win 7490 which is essentially 3 to 1 pot odds. In order to truly justify this call I would have to have a hand that will win greater than 33.3% of the time in the long run. In this case my opponent could have such a large variety of hands that it is difficult to put him on anything too specific but I felt the most likely hand for him is Ax which if it's the case would make me 40% to win the hand.
So the result is a hand that looks a little funny at first but when broken down is made obvious that it is the correct play and a profitable play in the long run.

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